Speaker Paul Ryan may fall victim to his own attempt at party unity after standing behind his reluctant embrace of Donald Trump for the presidency.
A talented legislator ensnared in perhaps the most tenuous political relationship of this election cycle, Mr. Ryan has painstakingly groomed his endorsement of Trump since the primary results left the party leader with no other option. Ryan’s caveat-laden backing of the Republican nominee demarcates clear boundaries members of the GOP establishment aren’t willing to cross, from Trump’s proposed full Muslim ban, to insulting the Khan family, which Ryan recently critiqued as being “beyond the pale.” Providing the antithesis of Trump’s astounding talent for saying just about anything that crosses his mind, Speaker Ryan’s prudence in judging where to “defend Republicans, and our principles, so that people don’t make the mistake of thinking we think like that” without losing the Republican base has, up to this point, largely kept him out of trouble and served as the duct tape holding the Republican life raft together through Trump’s innumerable gaffes.
That is, until now. The halfhearted endorsements provided by many establishment party leaders that helped to legitimize Trump’s bid for the White House aren’t being reciprocated by the nominee as he refuses to endorse Speaker Ryan and Arizona Senator John McCain in their primary election campaigns. Speaking with the Washington Post, Trump stated, “I like Paul, but these are horrible times for our country. We need very strong leadership. We need very, very strong leadership. And I’m just not quite there yet. I’m not quite there yet.” Trump even tweeted out kind words for Mr. Ryan’s lesser known challenger, Wisconsin businessman Paul Nehlen and stated that he wouldn’t back Senator McCain “because I’ve always felt that he should have done a much better job for the vets.”
As the GOP continues to self-destruct with the nation watching, FiveThirtyEight provides a glimpse into how Trump’s own low poll standings in key states may sink GOP Senators up for reelection in states that are “most likely to change their party” such as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. To gain a majority in the Senate, assuming that Clinton can clinch the presidency, Democrats would need to take four of these tight Senate races come November.
In addition, all the media attention on Trump and his controversial statements about Russian hackers, the Khan family, and Trump University post-convention has meant less airtime for the message that Republicans want to focus on: Hillary Clinton’s shortfalls. Ryan comments, “We just came out of our convention, and yeah, he’s had a pretty strange run since the convention. You would think we’d ought to be focusing on Hillary Clinton and all of her deficiencies. She is such a weak candidate that one would think we’d be on offense against Hillary Clinton, and it is distressing that that’s not what we’re talking about these days.”
As the polls continue to slide in Hillary Clinton’s favor, with leads nearing or in the double digits on Thursday, the collection of Republicans who have abandoned Donald Trump grows larger, with two congressmen, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, retracting their endorsements on Wednesday. As Trump’s campaign continues to unravel, one has to imagine that Republican leaders like Ryan and McCain are itching to abandon Trump’s political Titanic they reluctantly helped to build just months ago.
