We received this message from Richard Bernstein concerning Trump’s call to/from Taiwan. (To read more about Richard and what he shared with students in STL, click here.)
There are two ways of looking at the phone call that took place between Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen and President-elect Donald Trump. One is that it was a deserved poke in the eye to the dictators of Beijing who insist that Taiwan belongs to them, and don’t seem to care what the people on Taiwan want. The other is that it was an impetuous gesture that won’t really do any good for Taiwan and will damage relations between the United States and the world’s rising superpower, China.
Ever since the Shanghai Communique of 1972, when the US and China started talking again, a compromise on the issue of Taiwan has endured. It was not an entirely satisfactory situation for either side, but that’s the nature of compromise–you don’t get everything you want in exchange for something you do want. In this case, the United States had to agree that there was only one China and Taiwan was a part of it, which, in turn, meant that there could be no formal relations between the US and Taiwan. For its part, China put aside indefinitely its wish to reunify the country while allowing the US to maintain informal relations with Taiwan and to sell it arms with which to defend itself.
It was far from perfect, especially for the people of Taiwan, who weren’t consulted. But it has allowed for Taiwan, which has become a democracy, to keep its autonomy and its separate way of life. It’s possible that the already famous phone call won’t have serious consequences, that it was a one-off and that, if Trump declines to build a formal relationship with Taiwan (and my guess is he won’t try to do that), China and the US will move ahead normally. But President-elect’s Trump’s gesture could have grave consequences: it could even push China to solve the Taiwan problem by military force. We’ll see what happens after Mr. Trump takes office in January.
