This is an article from the June 2025 Civitas Examiner (Volume 2, No. 3) and was written by one of our students, Owen F. The opinions expressed herein do not reflect those of Civitas other than respect for the value of open dialogue. To read more Civitas Examiner stories or to submit your own, click here.
Once one of America’s great industrial hubs, St. Louis continues to grapple with a dramatic population decline that threatens the city’s economic vitality, cultural fabric, and political influence. Once home to nearly 880,000 residents in 1950, the city’s population has dwindled to just under 280,000, marking a loss of nearly 65% over the past seven decades.
According to new census data, the city lost more than 21,000 residents from 2020 to 2024, one of the steepest declines among U.S. cities with populations over 20,000. While the surrounding metropolitan area has experienced modest growth, adding over 6,000 people in the last year, the town shrank by over 3,000 residents in 2024 alone.
St. Louis’s population can be a result of how people’s needs change over time. While young adults may be drawn to downtown apartments and city life, families often relocate in search of safer neighborhoods, better schools, and higher-quality homes available in the suburbs. Problems with city services and institutions, particularly public schools, further deter residents. Additionally, as neighborhoods lose longtime residents and social ties weaken, many feel less connected to the community, making suburbs that promise stronger social networks more appealing. These social factors show that reversing the decline will require more than new housing. It demands rebuilding trust and creating neighborhoods that support people at all stages of life.
One of the most significant issues is what demographers call “natural decrease,” a situation where deaths outpace births. In recent years, the region has consistently experienced more deaths than births, with the number of annual births projected to fall below 20,000 by 2029. This is compounded by a national trend of falling birth rates, especially among younger adults.
Domestic migration is also a major driver of the decline. Between 2010 and 2020, the city lost over 32,000 residents through migration, including roughly 27,000 Black residents and 5,000 white residents. This trend is connected to quality of life and certains costs or factors that can get in the way of that quality. For example, crime remains a persistent issue for many residents, particularly in neighborhoods with little adequate resources to address the lack of public safety. Schools are a very critical factor when deciding migration; many families leave the city in search of more stable, better-performing schools in nearby suburbs. Housing is also a key issue. While luxury apartments have increased downtown, there’s a shortage of affordable, family-sized homes in safe, well-serviced areas. As a result, middle-class families, especially Black families who have historically made the city what it is today, are relocating to counties like St. Louis County or St. Charles County, where they can find more space, lower crime rates, and better educational opportunities.
Meanwhile, the city’s urban core is increasingly geared toward single professionals and younger adults. Many rent apartments downtown rather than settle and raise families. In contrast, suburbs in St. Louis County and St. Charles County offer more family-friendly amenities and have drawn much of the region’s growth in recent years.
The effects of this sustained exodus are visible across nearly every sector of city life. Schools have experienced declining enrollment, resulting in closures and consolidations. A shrinking tax base limits funding for public services, while aging infrastructure continues to deteriorate with fewer resources for repairs and upgrades.
Economically, the city faces a “doom loop” scenario, a cycle in which job losses, business closures, and reduced foot traffic downtown further deter investment and residency. The closure of downtown stores, pharmacies, gas stations, and other establishments is a recent symptom of this trend.
Culturally and politically, the departure of Black residents, the backbone of the city’s population for much of the 20th century, represents a drastic demographic shift. It affects voting patterns and community representation and erodes institutions built by and for those communities.
Despite these trends, city officials and regional planners are working to reverse the decline. One key strategy is immigration. The city has launched efforts to welcome more international migrants, aiming to attract 2,000 new immigrants in 2025 and 15,000 by 2030. These newcomers could help replenish the workforce, start new businesses, and revitalize vacant neighborhoods.
Another focus is zoning reform. Outdated 1950s-era codes have restricted housing diversity and density. New proposals aim to legalize accessory dwelling units (ADUs), expand multi-unit housing, and create incentives for family-oriented developments that persuade more residents to stay.
Additionally, there are attempts to revitalize downtown by converting vacant office buildings into apartments and mixed-use developments. These efforts, while still in the early stages, are designed to break the cycle of decline and bring new life to areas marked by remote work and business closures.
Without a significant increase in new residents and robust reforms, projections indicate that the city’s population could decline below 265,000 within three years. In the long term, the survival of St. Louis as a viable urban center may hinge on its ability to adapt, reimagine housing, invest in infrastructure, and, most importantly, welcome new residents who can help revitalize its communities.
St. Louis may be shrinking for now, but its story is far from over. Whether it becomes a model for urban reinvention or a cautionary lesson of demographic collapse remains to be seen.
