This is an article from the Winter 2025 Civitas Examiner (Volume 2, No. 4) and was written by one of our students, Kirill K. The opinions expressed herein do not reflect those of Civitas other than respect for the value of open dialogue. To read more Civitas Examiner stories or to submit your own, click here.
On August 17, 2025, Bolivians voted in the first round of their presidential election. To everyone’s shock, it led to a significant defeat of the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS), which has ruled the country for nearly two decades. The two candidates who will advance to the runoff will be the centrist Rodrigo Paz Pereira and the conservative Jorge Quiroga. Before examining the results, a brief look at the recent history of Bolivia would help us explain how we arrived here.
Much of Bolivia’s recent history has revolved around Evo Morales, who was elected president in 2006. As a leftist and Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, Morales reshaped the country’s politics and economy, maintaining dominance for over a decade. However, Morales would become controversial in 2016. After being re-elected for the third time in 2014, Morales called for a referendum in 2016, aiming to allow himself to run for a fourth term. A 51.3% majority voted down the referendum, but in 2017, Morales had the Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal abolish term limits. This led to a controversy, with some seeing it as democratic backsliding.
The disputed 2019 election, with a sudden pause in vote count and accusations of fraud, triggered mass protests and forced Morales to resign. After the resignation of Morales, Jeanine Añez, the second vice president of the senate, became the interim president from 2019 to 2020. Her brief right-wing government deepened the country’s polarization.
Eventually, the 2020 elections arrived, and Luis Arce, the MAS candidate, was elected president. However, in his exile, Morales tried to regain control of MAS, including controlling appointments and party decisions, which conflicted with Arce, a technocrat and economist. Eventually, MAS fractured into those who backed Arce and those who backed Morales, with the latter forming a new political movement, Evo Pueblo. A severe economic downturn exacerbated the situation, and consequently, the popularity of MAS declined, with it being perceived as fractured and ineffective in governance.
Let’s examine some major candidates who did not run, as they either declined to or were disqualified. The first and most obvious one is Evo Morales. He wanted to run, but in 2024, the Constitutional Court banned him from running. Morales did not take the news well and called for roadblock protests and protest votes. The protest votes part worked, as about 20% of the votes were invalid in the 2025 election. The incumbent president, Luis Arce, refused to run for a second term, despite being eligible, due to growing internal divisions within MAS and the economic crisis, which damaged his reputation. The last major candidate who did not run was Luis Fernando Camacho. This right-wing ex-governor of Santa Cruz, nicknamed Bolivian Bolsonaro, took a significant role in the 2019 political crisis and, in 2023, was arrested and incarcerated due to his role in the ousting of Morales, making him ineligible to run.
Now, let’s get back to the election results of 2025. To everyone’s surprise, the winner of the first round, at 32.06%, was Rodrigo Paz Pereira. He is the son of the former president Jaime Paz Zamora, and before running for president, was a senator for the department of Tarija. Pereira is a centrist who aims to decentralize the government, implement moderate economic reforms without harsh austerity measures, and combat corruption. While initially showing poorly in the polls, his moderate approach attracted voters as election day approached.
The second candidate, at 26.70%, is Jorge Quiroga, the former President of Bolivia from 2001 to 2002. He is a much harder-line right-winger, advocating for neoliberal market policies, including IMF loans.
As for some of the candidates who failed to advance to the second round, three are worth mentioning. First is Samuel Doria Medina, who came in third with 19.69%. He is a wealthy businessman who owns a massive cement manufacturer, hotel chains, and the Bolivian franchise of Burger King. He initially led in the pre-election polls with Quiroga, but failed to pass to the second round.
Another candidate worth mentioning is Andrónico Rodríguez. He is a young politician, only 36 years old, and a former member of MAS. He is the incumbent president of the Senate. He initially was a popular MAS member, but after MAS split into a Morales vs. Arce conflict, he ran separately under a new party, the Popular Alliance. Morales proclaimed Rodríguez to be a traitor, and as Rodríguez voted, a mob pelted him with stones. This is ironic, since before splitting with MAS, Rodríguez was in a good relationship with Morales. Rodríguez failed, only receiving 8.51% of the vote.
The final candidate to discuss is Eduardo Del Castillo, the MAS candidate and former Minister of Government. He failed miserably, with a result of 3.17%, and MAS lost all seats in the Senate and all but two seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
In conclusion, the reasons behind this shocking election outcome in Bolivia are complex: the unresolved post-2019 MAS leadership dispute, a worsening economic situation, and the internal fracturing of MAS left the Bolivian left-wing without a single, united, and strong candidate. As of October 15th, opinion polls show Quiroga leading in the runoff at 44.9% to 36.5% over Rodrigo Paz. The outcome may range on how many blank notes will be cast as protest votes by Morales supporters or how those eliminated in the first round would endorse the two candidates, if they endorse any of them.
